Guinea coup leader Mamady Doumbouya is expected to coast to victory in a presidential election on Sunday, buoyed by the launch of a long-awaited iron ore mega-mine and weak competition from a fragmented field of challengers.
Four years ago, Doumbouya, then a special forces commander, ousted President Alpha Conde in one of nine coups that have roiled West and Central Africa since 2020.
He initially vowed not to run for office, but a new constitution approved in September removed language that would have barred him and extended the presidential term from five to seven years.
Conde and longtime opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo are in exile and other potential challengers were disqualified for failing to submit required documents. That leaves eight challengers who are unlikely to give Doumbouya much trouble.
“Let’s not kid ourselves: there can be no other opponent who can challenge him,” said Guinean political analyst Bella Bah. “But that’s not the most important thing. (After the election) the president needs to take a step back and realise that he now has to exercise power,” Bah added, urging Doumbouya to engage in dialogue with actors beyond the military.
Political debate has been limited under Doumbouya, and civil society groups accuse his government of banning protests, curbing press freedom and restricting opposition activity.
MINING MILESTONE
Guinea holds the world’s largest reserves of bauxite and the richest untapped iron ore deposit at Simandou, which was officially launched last month.
Production at Simandou, originally scheduled for 1997, had been long delayed. Doumbouya’s junta ordered development to be paused in 2022, saying it wanted to review how national interests would be safeguarded once it came online.
Simandou is central to Doumbouya’s vision for Guinea: the country’s national development strategy is called Simandou 2040.
Annual production at the 75% Chinese-owned project is expected to peak at some 120 million metric tons, and supporters say Doumbouya will ensure Guinea gets its share of the proceeds.
“Dear Guineans, Guinea is no longer for sale,” government spokesperson Ousmane Gaoual Diallo declared at a campaign event this month. “Guinea is no longer up for grabs, Guinea is standing tall.”
Doumbouya’s transitional government also revoked EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation’s license after a refinery dispute, transferring its assets to a state-owned firm.
The turn towards resource nationalism – also seen in other countries in the region with military rulers, including Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – has bolstered Doumbouya’s popularity.
“The way politics was done before and now is different. We no longer have violent campaigns, but there is enthusiasm,” said Conakry resident Mohamed Keita, 65.
“People are out in the field, everyone expresses their opinions without violence.”
WARMING REGIONAL TIES
The campaign has unfolded peacefully, though Doumbouya’s tight grip means it is hardly a level playing field, said Gilles Yabi, founder of West African think tank WATHI.
“This is obviously a context that doesn’t allow for any hope of a free and fair presidential election,” Yabi said.
“The mere fact of holding a presidential election will not change the reality of power, which will remain primarily in the hands of the military.”
Despite such concerns, the West African regional bloc ECOWAS is sending observers, a sign of “growing rapprochement” even though Guinea has been formally suspended since the 2021 coup, consultancy Signal Risk said in a note.
About 6.7 million people are registered to vote, with provisional results expected within 48 hours of polls closing.
