Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is widely expected to extend his four-decade rule in an election on Thursday after a campaign marred by violence and clouded by questions about who might eventually succeed him.
A former rebel leader who overthrew his predecessor in 1986, Museveni is now 81 and faces seven challengers. He says another four years in power – his seventh term – would allow him to “protect the gains” of Uganda’s relative peace and stability.
The main opponent among his seven challengers is 43-year-old pop star Bobi Wine, who won 35% of the vote in the last election in 2021 and has energised young voters angry about widespread unemployment and corruption.
Museveni has changed the constitution twice to remove age and term limits, and his dominance of Ugandan institutions means there is little prospect of an upset in the East African country of 46 million, political analysts say.
But the election, and any unrest that accompanies the voting, will be an important test of his political strength at a critical moment, four years after the United States denounced the last election as neither free nor fair.
Uganda is a significant geopolitical player in East Africa and has troops deployed in Somalia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea as part of peacekeeping, anti-insurgency or military cooperation missions.
Economic growth, traditionally reliant on coffee, tourism and agro-processing, is expected to surge into double digits when crude oil production from fields run by France’s TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC begins later this year.
SPECULATION ABOUT SUCCESSION
Museveni is widely believed to favour his son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, to be his successor, though the president has denied grooming Kainerugaba for the role.
Kainerugaba, a prolific social media presence who often posts threats of violence against opposition leaders, has openly declared his desire to succeed his father.
But Kainerugaba’s status as heir apparent is not accepted by all within the ruling National Resistance Movement and other party heavyweights are also positioning themselves for Museveni’s eventual departure, analysts say.
As in previous elections, the campaign has been marred by violence, with security forces repeatedly using teargas and live bullets at Wine’s campaign events. At least one person has been killed and hundreds arrested.
The government has defended the security forces’ actions as a justified response to lawless conduct by opposition supporters.
Fears of unrest around the poll have been amplified by violent protests around Tanzania’s elections in October, in which the United Nations estimates hundreds of people were killed. Anti-government protests over the past two years in Kenya, which also borders Uganda, have also been deadly.
“The possibility of a contagion effect in Uganda, inspired by its two neighbours, cannot be ruled out,” said Kampala-based political analyst Timothy Kalyegira.
WINE TAPS INTO DISSATISFACTION OF YOUNG PEOPLE
The first round of voting will be held alongside a parliamentary election. A presidential run-off will be held within a month if no candidate wins an outright majority.
Despite concerns about his human rights record, Museveni has won favour with Western countries by sending troops to regional hotspots such as Somalia and taking in millions of refugees.
More recently, he has curried favour with U.S. President Donald Trump by agreeing to take in U.S. deportees who are nationals of third countries.
Sarah Rusoke, a 26-year-old owner of a vehicle-washing business credited Museveni with building an “economy that allows us to start businesses and … create our own footprints”.
Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, has tapped into dissatisfaction among young people in a country where more than 70% of the population is under 30.
He has described the election as a “protest vote” against what he calls Museveni’s “dictatorship”, while pledging a wholesale clean-up of official corruption if he wins.
“I am inspired by his bravery,” Simon Walusimbi, a 21-year-old mechanic, said of Wine. “He has put up with all the persecution the government has thrown at him.”
