The reaction of the Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari after the Taliban victory in Afghan summed up the feelings of Africa after the news broke out. Buhari in his article is of the opinion that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and developments that followed it, did not mean that the ‘war on terror’ was winding down, but rather indicate that the war is moving to Africa.
In his word “Africa is the new frontline of global militancy. Africa is the new frontline of global militancy. Yet few expect the outlay expended here to be as great as in Afghanistan. The fight against terrorism begun under the George W Bush administration was never truly global.”
The Nigerian President’s position and sentiment could be understood through the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria. Boko Haram has been waging war on the governments and citizens since 2009, and has spread to regions in Cameroon, Chad and Niger.
For the citizens and experts in many Africa countries, the fear is that the new development in Afghanistan and the international recognition of the rule of Taliban rule may reinforce the violent activities of the “terrorist” groups to achieve their goals drawing inspiration from the Taliban and their strategies.
The withdrawal of the U.S. and the following developments in Afghanistan should serve as reflections to all African governments, and especially the Sahel region on the nature of foreign military interventions and the importance of developments. This is due to the rise of insurgency of different violent extremist groups in the Sahel, and the fears that the withdrawal of French forces from the region might lead to catastrophe in the wake of the region’s countries weak military efficiency.
African Sahel is highly competitive at the international level, and a strategic location for its countries. The Sahel is a testament to past African civilizations and history, stretching from the Atlantic Ocean eastward through northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, the great bend of the Niger River in Mali, Burkina Faso, southern Niger, northeastern Nigeria, south-central Chad, and into Sudan. There are four main terrorist group active in the Sahel region today. These groups are the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (IS-GS), which is active in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, and the “Islamic State-West Africa Province” (ISWP/Boko Haram), which is active in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, and the Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin which is considered the Saharan branch of Al-Qaeda.
In February 2014, five of the Sahelian countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger) came together in Nouakchott, Mauritania with strong support from France to establish a united front called the G5 Sahel to confront the terrorist groups. Yet attacks in these countries have escalated due to the alliances between the terrorist movements to expand their influence and activities in the border region between Burkina, Mali and Niger. That is why most of the reactions where about the military capacities of these countries when France announced in June that its operations in the Sahel to combat the militants, also known as the Barkhane operation, will be reduced from 5,100 soldiers to 2,500-3,000 by early next year.
Also, the popular opinion in the Sahel region is that the French armies are there for another unannounced mission, many citizens in the francophone countries in Africa view the presence of French soldiers as a neo-colonial tool of a former colonial power. The immediate lesson from Afghanistan is that foreign military interventions usually further complicate the situation and negatively impact the self-reliance, nation building and economic development of these countries. Thus, it is imperative for the G5 Sahel countries to carve out a suitable timing of the French presence and implement the gradual withdrawal that will give these countries enough time to prepare and build their capabilities.
Meanwhile, some countries in the region are not yet ready to put an end to foreign interference despite the oppositions from their citizens, while others are looking for substitution due to the loss since 2013; the terrorist groups have grown in number, and countries such as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have lost thousands of their armies in eight years, and France itself has seen 55 of its soldiers killed during the cause of the desert guerrilla war in the Sahel. According to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), there were more over 6,000 civilian deaths in 2020.
For these countries, the U.S. withdrawal, and chaotic scenes from Afghanistan might simply mean that the time has come to look for another foreign big player that is more ‘trustworthy’ and ‘reliable’. The big player that comes to fore is Russia which seems to be on the favorable side even before the new development in Afghanistan. Russia was accused of being behind the 2020 coup in Mali by forging a secret alliance with coup plotters against the France-backed Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. Russia has also followed up its plans to build military bases in Sudan by signing different military agreements with Mali, Mauritania, and Nigeria.
Accordingly, it is expected that Africa will be at the lowest priority in US foreign policy, especially with regard to the “Build Back Better World” initiative proposed by the Biden administration to oppose the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative. In this regard, China has been targeting African countries with Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy and is expected to further benefit from the event in Afghanistan at the forthcoming China-Africa Cooperation Summit in Dakar, Senegal.
Finally, the U.S. President Joe Biden’s statement that his country’s mission in Afghanistan was never for nation-build” gives the impression that foreign military interventions in most cases serve the foreign country’s agenda. African governments should thus channel their efforts on nation-building and addressing the factors that foster general distrust and sympathy with armed extremists in some communities. This is because the root cause of the emergence of violent groups is often linked to corruption, decline in local economy, and excessive reliance on external support, which often exacerbates the crisis and leaves weak states unable to assume their responsibilities.
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* Nigerian researcher. He writes mainly on African history, youth empowerment, political and social developments in Sub-Saharan Africa.
