The African continent has a unique place in human history. Widely believed to be the “cradle of humankind,” Africa is the only continent with fossil evidence of human beings (Homo sapiens) and their ancestors through each key stage of their evolution. After the end of the infamous Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade in the middle of the nineteenth century, the world is now seeing a replay of history in another dimension, where this time the youth in Africa are drifting away in their numbers to Europe to look for greener pastures as many of them are unemployed in their home countries, and most are without relevant employable skills. Growing attention is paid to the long-lasting legacies of historical forced migration of enslaved Africans overseas, especially across the Atlantic from the 16th to 19th centuries. This was noted by two renowned experts on the issue of migration in Africa, Michiel de Haas and Ewout Frankema, in an article titled ‘’Migration in Africa: Shifting Patterns of Mobility from the 19th to the 21st Century.’’ Furthermore, they stated that until the 1820s, Africans dominated Atlantic migration. For every European, four to five enslaved Africans disembarked in the Americas. North Africans led the way, but migration from below the Sahara also increased steadily, with many moving to the former European metropoles but increasingly also to North America and the Gulf region. Today, according to UN estimates, some fifty percent of all African international migrants reside outside the continent, and some 30 percent of sub-Saharan international migrants.
Sub-Saharan Africa is a vast land rich in natural resources with great potential for investment and opportunity. However, the two modern trends of democracy and economic prosperity elude this region due in large part to persistent conflict and complex socio-political dynamics. Going back to history, the heady post-independence period of the 1960s and early 1970s, when development was considered simply a matter of following a plan formulated by Western experts, has now been succeeded by a time of fiscal crises and international marginalization. As simple survival has become more problematic, it has become increasingly difficult to avoid overexploiting natural resources and degrading the environment. As well, in the 1980s, ordinary residents of Harare (Zimbabwe’s capital) were probably the most economically and socially secure urban people in sub-Saharan Africa. By the mid-2000s, they were among the least secure. Over the same period, most ordinary urban people in sub-Saharan Africa had suffered significant falls in their living standards, leading to adaptations in their livelihoods and the nature of migration. Efforts by African governments, regional organizations, and international partners are ongoing to address these challenges and promote sustainable development.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Emigration dynamics
Migration, an intrinsic part of human history, is often overshadowed by sensationalized narratives. However, the reality is far more nuanced than what captures headlines. Most migration is regular, safe, and regionally focused, directly linked to opportunities and livelihoods. Yet, misinformation and politicization have clouded public discourse, necessitating a clear and accurate portrayal of migration dynamics. However, migration would not necessarily be by choice or willingness but rather forced out of situations. In order to have the deeper concept of migration, Michiel de Haas and Francesco Castelli in their article, ‘’Drivers of migration: why do people move?’’ Published in 2018 in the Journal of Travel Medicine, Volume 25, Issue 1, stated that: ‘’Migration is a complex phenomenon where’macro’-,’meso’-, and’micro’-factors ac act together to inform the final individual decision to migrate, integrating the simpler previous push-pull theory. Among the’macro-factors’, the political, demographic, socio-economic, and environmental situations are major contributors to migration. These are the main drivers of forced migration, either international or internal, and largely out of individuals’ control. Among the’meso-factors’, communication technology, land grabbing, and diasporic links play an important role.
In particular, social media attracts people out of their origin countries by raising awareness of living conditions in the affluent world, albeit often grossly exaggerated, with the diaspora link also acting as an attractor. However,’micro-factors’ such as education, religion, marital status, and personal attitude toward migration also have a key role in making the final decision to migrate an individual choice. The stereotype of the illiterate, poor, and rural migrant reaching the borders of affluent countries has to be abandoned. The poorest people simply do not have the means to escape war and poverty and remain trapped in their country or in the neighboring one.’’
Hence, migration in Africa has been of three types: intra- and inter-country (internal) movements of people within the continent; movement from outside into the continent; and movement from the continent outward. Despite the fact international migration remains a driver of human development and economic growth, highlighted by a more than 650 percent increase in international remittances from 2000 to 2022, rising from USD 128 billion to USD 831 billion. While the population of sub-Saharan Africa has grown from 186 million to 856 million people from 1950-2010. That’s about 11 million people a year for the past 60 years, or approximately 670 million people in 60 years. By 2060, the population of sub-Saharan Africa could be as large as 2.7 billion people. With 70% of Africans dependent on agriculture for livelihoods, the sector is critical to the economies of all African countries. Africa is expected to be one of the continents hardest hit by climate change, with increasing extreme weather events threatening the health of its people and economies. There are about 17 million displaced persons across the African continent, the Guardian reports, and only a small proportion of them are reaching the shores of the European continent. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), adverse consequences of climate change are concentrated in regions with relatively hot climates, where a disproportionately large number of low-income countries are located.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rates of education exclusion of the six developing worlds. As of 2015, a median of 88% across all nine countries say jobs are a very big problem in their nation, including 92% in Ghana, Tanzania, and Senegal. Similarly, every year, 20 million new job seekers enter the labor market in sub-Saharan Africa, one of the region’s greatest strengths over the long term. In the same way, the health of people in sub-Saharan Africa is a major global concern. While health care spending varied even more widely by country. Additionally, the geopolitical and geoeconomic ramifications of the war in Ukraine have directly impacted the African continent by contributing to food and cooking oil inflation and humanitarian aid delivery. Similarly, conflicts between states and armed groups and attacks on civilians have continued or escalated in most parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Nonetheless, pervasive conflict throughout much of Sub-Saharan Africa defies easy resolution due to a unique web of factors. Poor governance, ethnic rivalry, mismanagement of land and natural resources, declining economic conditions, and widespread poverty and famine form a daunting bulwark against stability. While unilateral sanctions and other economic coercive measures as well as illicit financial flows have been proven as impediments to the socioeconomic development of countries on the continent. Today, a combination of structural and governance factors is contributing to the steady increase in African migration, which, if current trends persist, will see African cross-border migration reach 11 to 12 million people by 2050. An estimated 35 percent of people in Sub-Saharan Africa live in poverty, creating enormous pressure on income-earning members of households to secure employment to meet basic needs.
Trends in International Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa
Globally, the pace of population growth is slowing, with notable differences across countries and regions. The observation that international migration has continued or increased despite policy restrictions is no proof that policies have not been effective, let alone that they have failed. Conversely, decreasing migration is no evidence that policy restrictions are successful, as this can also be the result of an economic recession in destination countries or the end of the conflict in origin countries. According to some experts, the international migration was primarily within SSA to low- and lower-middle-income countries and externally to certain high-income OECD countries. Nevertheless, global migration has thus not accelerated. In fact, the magnitude (relative to total population size) and diversity of immigration have decreased in several regions, particularly in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.
The geographical scope, intensity and diversity of immigration to and emigration from sub-Saharan Africa has decreased rather than increased over the post-WWII period. On the other hand, historical destination countries are still attractive for sociocultural reasons. Beyond language proximity, institutional factors are of importance because education systems in former colonies are structured on the model of the former metropolis, which facilitates degree recognition. As many as 244 million people were international migrants in 2015, and the UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs estimates that the figure is as high as 257.7 million in 2017, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Importantly, out of the 244 million claimed by IOM in 2015, 90.2 million moved from a southern country to another southern country, while only 85.3 million were people migrating from the south to the north, the remaining being individuals from the north migrating to the south (13.6 million) or from the north to the north (55.1 million). At present, more international migrants are of working age and live in Europe, Asia, and North America. Apart from international migrants, an astonishing figure of 740 million people is estimated to have migrated internally within their origin country.
While most migrants are likely to continue to leave their homes voluntarily to pursue socioeconomic opportunities. In 2019, about two-thirds of the world’s migrants were voluntary workers, and only 11 percent were refugees fleeing conflict or instability. The number of Africans living in different regions also grew during the same period, from around 17 million in 2015 to over 19.5 million in 2020. The international migrant stock data (2020) show that around 21 million Africans were living in another African country, a significant increase from 2015, when around 18 million Africans were estimated to be living outside of their country of origin but within the region. The number of Africans living in different regions also grew during the same period, from around 17 million in 2015 to over 19.5 million in 2020. According to some observers, migration from Africa generally is low by global standards, and most of the movement, except for North Africa, takes place within the region, partly reflecting the relatively more flexible migration policies adopted by African countries over the years.
A New Developmental Approach to Migration Policies
Migration can have important implications for domestic institutions and politics. For instance, EU national governments have often expressed a long-standing concern that countries with rather open policies, especially those of Southern Europe, are mere gates to the Schengen Area. Equally, bilateral cooperation can be optimized to match migrants’ skills and attributes with the needs of destination economies that would maximize the development impacts of cross-border movements. This approach enables policymakers to distinguish between types of population movements and to design migration policies for each. In terms of policy implications, migration episodes that respond to incentives for economic opportunities generally reflect market forces in bridging excess demand in factor or goods markets, thus allowing efficient allocation of resources and fostering greater economic integration. Despite lack of evidence, it is plausible to expect that South-South migration is followed by increased trade flows and adjustment of labor markets in both sending and destination countries, which both play a crucial role in promoting growth and ensuring employment. The more formal and institutionalized migration becomes, the greater economic integration and its benefits will be.
From Tensions to Solutions
The populace of the continent and the consolidation of its racial, ethnic, and linguistic landscape certainly cannot be totally separated from the consequences of the various migratory movements. International inequality is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition for migration, and migration can therefore not be reduced to a function of wage and income gaps. Colonial and Cold War legacies still hinder Sub-Saharan Africa’s ability to control conflict and advance economically. While the interconnected web of development challenges underscores the complexity of addressing migration issues, emphasizing the need for comprehensive approaches that address root causes. For the optimist, these demographic shifts are exciting; for the pessimist, the numbers are daunting. What kind of future will greet another billion people in the region? It depends on the policies that governments embark on to ensure quality education, affordable and quality health care, clean water, adequate sanitation, etc.
Experts propose that unauthorized migration is not a mere substitute for regular migration in countries that tighten their migration policies. Rather, it is an aspect of the transformation of the migration systems. The potential of diasporas as a source of economic and social development in origin countries and whether diasporas could help foster development depend on their characteristics, such as size, composition, skill levels, and degree of concentration, but also on the degree of integration into the destination countries and the economic, political, and social environment in origin countries. However, high-skilled emigration or the so-called “brain drain” can imply a loss of public resources invested in their education, can reduce the sending country’s productive capacity, and can worsen the business environment, especially in small economies. Governments can consider enhancing public employment centers to provide training and reskilling programs for workers, including elderly and underrepresented groups. As the labour market becomes increasingly global, the educational policies in developing countries will need to be revised to invest in skills that are needed within the country as well as in the global labour markets.
Consequently, migration into already fragile places risks heightening tensions around land and water resources. With trends showing growing climate migration, African countries have incentives to anticipate these movements and invest in inclusive climate-resilient strategies. Given the importance of structural, macro-level migration drivers in shaping long-term migration processes, it is crucial to assess the extent to which migration policies can shape the volume, composition, timing, or geographical direction of migration independently and in interaction with other migration determinants. In any case, the stereotype of the illiterate poor migrant coming from the most remote rural areas and reaching the borders of affluent countries does not stand. The poorest people simply do not have the means to escape war and poverty and remain trapped in their country or in the neighboring one. Some degree of entrepreneurship, educational level, social and financial support is usually requested for international south-north economic migration, and personal characteristics and choices also play a role.
In addition, international partners can further support mutually beneficial migration efforts by improving data collection on African populations and migration patterns. Conclusively, in the closing years of the 20th century, most countries in sub-Saharan Africa find themselves almost returning to the drawing board. Three decades of trying to drive their economies according to Western models have left them prostrate, their people wallowing in poverty, and their environment exposed to many hazards. More importantly, the international indebtedness of these countries and their present unattractiveness to foreign investors are forcing them to rethink the whole question of development. Moreover, policymakers will need to create more fiscal space to support these reforms by mobilizing domestic revenue, enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of spending, and managing public debt vulnerabilities.
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This article expresses the views and opinions of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of Qiraat Africa and its editors.
