Somaliland opposition leader Abdirahman Cirro defeated incumbent president Muse Bihi Abdi in last week’s election, the electoral commission said on Tuesday, setting up a handover of power as the breakaway Somali region pushes for global recognition.
Somaliland has had de facto self-rule since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, but has not been recognised by any country, restricting access to international finance and the ability of its six million people to travel.
Cirro, leader of the opposition Waddani party, won 64% of the vote against Bihi’s 35%, said Musa Hassan, chairman of the Somaliland Electoral Commission.
Occupying a strategic location at the juncture of the Indian Ocean and Red Sea, Somaliland sees international recognition as being within reach after signing a preliminary deal with landlocked Ethiopia in January that would grant Addis Ababa a strip of land on its coast in exchange for recognition.
Somaliland is also hopeful that the incoming U.S. administration of President-elect Donald Trump will be favourable to its cause. Several leading Africa policy officials from Trump’s first term have voiced support for its recognition.
The breakaway region has enjoyed a comparative period of peace since achieving autonomy three decades ago, just as Somalia plunged into a civil war from which it has yet to emerge.
While Cirro has signalled broad support for the proposed pact with Ethiopia, his commitment to implementing it is not clear. Some analysts suspect he could be more open to dialogue with Somalia’s government, which opposes the agreement.
The deal has soured Somalia’s relations with Ethiopia, a major contributor towards a peacekeeping force in Somalia fighting Islamist militants, and drawn Somalia’s government closer to Ethiopia’s historic rivals, Egypt and Eritrea.
The presidents of Somalia and neighbouring Djibouti, whose relations with Somaliland were also strained under Bihi, congratulated Cirro on his win.
“Congratulations to the newly elected President of Somaliland… and to the brotherly people of Somaliland for their political maturity,” Djibouti’s president, Ismail Omar Guelleh, wrote on X.
In his message, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud committed to ongoing reconciliation talks, which he said were focused on preserving the unity of Somalia.
“While I think there are concerns that (Cirro) may opt for a radical departure from his predecessor, jettison the MOU (deal with Ethiopia), embrace dialogue with Somalia, there’s a big difference between campaigning and governing,” said Matt Bryden, a strategic adviser with the Sahan think tank.
Cirro’s victory could also signal closer ties with China, a major investor in the Horn of Africa.
According to Somali media reports, Cirro has in the past questioned the value of Somaliland’s ties with Taiwan, which China sees as part of its territory, in its quest for recognition.
