{"id":9600,"date":"2023-10-22T14:07:24","date_gmt":"2023-10-22T14:07:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=9600"},"modified":"2023-10-22T14:07:24","modified_gmt":"2023-10-22T14:07:24","slug":"what-are-the-chances-of-success-for-the-new-burkina-faso-mali-and-niger-defense-alliance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/9600\/what-are-the-chances-of-success-for-the-new-burkina-faso-mali-and-niger-defense-alliance\/","title":{"rendered":"What are the chances of success for the new Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger defense alliance? \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Moda Dieng, <\/strong>& Philippe M. Frowd*<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On 16 September 2023 in Bamako, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger established the Alliance of Sahel States<\/a>, a mutual defence pact. The agreement was signed against the backdrop of an ongoing political crisis in Niger following\u00a0a coup<\/a>\u00a0on 26 July 2023. The regional bloc, the\u00a0Economic Community of West African States\u00a0(Ecowas), threatened military intervention.<\/p>\n

The leaders of the three countries signed the\u00a0Liptako-Gourma<\/a>\u00a0charter, named after the Liptako-Gourma region, which straddles the three countries and is at the heart of security concerns in the central Sahel.<\/p>\n

The alliance was set up to help counter possible threats of armed rebellion or external aggression. According to the\u00a0member states<\/a>:<\/p>\n

any attack against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of one or more contracting parties will be considered as aggression against the other parties.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

However, the different bodies and mechanisms of the alliance have yet to be created.<\/p>\n

The Sahel region has been facing a\u00a0jihadist insurgency<\/a>\u00a0since the early 2000s. This situation has triggered many other conflicts in the region \u2013 war in Mali and insurgency in Burkina Faso. The member states of the military alliance have experienced military coups in recent years, leading to a deterioration of their relations with the rest of Ecowas and the international community.<\/p>\n

They have all hosted troops from the former colonial power, France, on their soil.<\/p>\n

The alliance was created while Ecowas was threatening to intervene militarily in Niger to help restore constitutional order following the coup d’\u00e9tat led by\u00a0General Abdourahmane Tchiani<\/a>. Its formation, however, raises a number of questions.<\/p>\n

Our\u00a0research<\/a>\u00a0focuses on\u00a0security issues in the Sahel<\/a>. In this article, we analyse the reasons for the creation of this alliance, its likely implications for regional cooperation and its chances of success.<\/p>\n

A desire for regional solidarity<\/h2>\n

For more than a decade, the fight against insecurity in the Sahel was led by France, as the coordinator of local and international interventions. This changed with the\u00a0withdrawal from Mali<\/a>\u00a0of the French military from Operation Barkhane in 2022 and the departure of\u00a0France\u2019s Operation Sabre from Burkina Faso<\/a>\u00a0in 2023.<\/p>\n

The new pact reflects a desire to break with the way terrorism and organised crime have been combated. For example, the perceived ineffectiveness of the\u00a0G5 Sahel Joint Force<\/a>\u00a0and Operation\u00a0Barkhane<\/a>\u00a0contributed to Mali\u2019s decision to seek other partners such as Russia.<\/p>\n

The resurgence of insecurity in the Sahel, however, shows that, in the fight against terrorism and organised crime, will and solidarity are not enough.\u00a0Liptako-Gourma<\/a>, a vast region of 370,000km\u00b2 and home to 45% of the total population of the three states, has been experiencing a serious security crisis. This is due to the presence of armed groups who are taking advantage of the withdrawal of Barkhane.<\/p>\n

By February 2023, the number of deaths linked to political violence\u00a0had increased<\/a>\u00a0by 77% in Burkina Faso and 150% in Mali compared with 2021. Burkina Faso is now the country with the highest number of victims of acts of terrorism in the world,\u00a0ahead of Afghanistan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Constraints on cooperation<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Alliance of Sahel States has been created at a time when regional and international cooperation in the Sahel is struggling. The G5 Sahel Joint Force, which raised a lot of hopes when it was launched in 2017, has been on the brink of collapse since\u00a0Mali withdrew<\/a>\u00a0in 2022. Cooperation with European partners has been hampered by a succession of events and decisions. These include the denunciation by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger of several defence agreements with Paris and the withdrawal of French troops.<\/p>\n

Although some partners, such as the United States,\u00a0maintain a presence<\/a>\u00a0in the Sahel, these changes have put constraints on the cooperation dynamic that has existed in the region for almost 20 years.<\/p>\n

Ecowas has not yet committed resources to the fight against terrorism in the Sahel. The organisation has been very\u00a0active<\/a>\u00a0in resolving political crises linked to coups in the region, but has not succeeded in encouraging transitions to civilian power.<\/p>\n

Ecowas\u2019 threats to\u00a0intervene militarily<\/a>\u00a0in Niger played a role in the creation of the new alliance.<\/p>\n

What will be the relationship between the Alliance of Sahel States and Ecowas? It is still too early to say. The same applies to the relationship between the alliance and other initiatives such as the\u00a0G5 Sahel Joint Force<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Accra Initiative<\/a>. For now, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are in a political stalemate with Ecowas on multiple fronts.<\/p>\n

Lack of aerial resources<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Sahel States Alliance appears to be an extension of an effort by the three countries to make the fight against terrorism their own. The resurgence of insecurity in the Sahel shows, however, that in the fight against terrorism and organised crime, the desire to be autonomous is not enough.<\/p>\n

The members of the new alliance are committed to financing the initiative through their own contributions. However, given their limited capacities, it is unlikely that they will be able to carry out the financially intensive war on terrorism on their own.<\/p>\n

Their armed forces also have major capacity weaknesses. Chief among them is a shortage of air assets. The army personnel with whom we spoke during our interviews in the Sahel are convinced that their defence and security forces could fight terrorism effectively if they had significant air capability.<\/p>\n

Through this new pact, the member countries are banking on the military approach. However, the fight against security threats does not depend only on military means. Experience in the Sahel has shown that a security-based approach tends to encourage escalation and\u00a0violence against civilians<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Admittedly, through\u00a0the Sahel Alliance<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 not be confused with Alliance of Sahel States \u2013 the\u00a0European Union<\/a>\u00a0and other partners have, in addition to military intervention, funded development projects, but without any major impact.<\/p>\n

As a system of defence and mutual assistance, the Liptako-Gourma Charter does not address economic and social development. This is essential in the fight against insecurity. For the time being, the new alliance remains a geopolitical signal linked to an embryonic security structure.<\/p>\n

\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640
\n*Professor of Conflict Studies, School of Conflict Studies, Universit\u00e9 Saint-Paul \/ Saint Paul University<\/em><\/p>\n

*Associate professor, L\u2019Universit\u00e9 d\u2019Ottawa\/University of Ottawa<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Sahel region has been facing a\u00a0jihadist insurgency\u00a0since the early 2000s. This situation has triggered many other conflicts in the region \u2013 war in Mali and insurgency in Burkina Faso. The member states of the military alliance have experienced military coups in recent years, leading to a deterioration of their relations with the rest of Ecowas and the international community.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8861,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":19,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"The Conversation","source_url":"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/burkina-faso-mali-and-niger-have-a-new-defence-alliance-an-expert-view-of-its-chances-of-success-215863","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"0","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"1"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1408,27],"tags":[1626,208,311,187,383],"class_list":["post-9600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-security-analysis-reports","category-west-africa","tag-alliance-of-sahel-states","tag-burkina-faso","tag-economic-community-of-west-african-states-ecowas","tag-mali","tag-niger"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9600\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}