{"id":9152,"date":"2023-09-17T12:00:16","date_gmt":"2023-09-17T12:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=9152"},"modified":"2023-09-17T12:00:16","modified_gmt":"2023-09-17T12:00:16","slug":"why-is-zambias-president-issuing-a-warning-to-non-existent-coup-plotters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/9152\/why-is-zambias-president-issuing-a-warning-to-non-existent-coup-plotters\/","title":{"rendered":"Why is Zambia’s president issuing a warning to non-existent coup plotters?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Sishuwa Sishuwa*<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On 4 September 2023, Zambia\u2019s President Hakainde Hichilema\u00a0denounced<\/a>\u00a0alleged coup plotters who he claimed were planning to undermine the country\u2019s democratic rule and stability by illegally seizing power. Coming after a\u00a0string<\/a>\u00a0of military coups in West and Central African countries<\/a>, his comments have attracted widespread attention across the continent and beyond.<\/p>\n

Hichilema\u2019s warning against those considering a coup was first issued at a rally in Kanyama, a densely populated settlement in the capital Lusaka. Any suggestion it was an off-the-cuff remark was eliminated when he restated the remarks in a carefully written\u00a0Facebook post<\/a>\u00a0later that evening.<\/p>\n

He wrote: \u201cTo colleagues that think we are timid by being kind and that they can break the laws and entertain thoughts of illegal takeover of government including undemocratic coup d\u2019\u00e9tat, our only word is that \u2018We are coming for you, and we will not allow you to make Zambians start running around as is the case in some places\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hichilema\u2019s talk of a coup plot caught many by surprise. Zambia has no history of military rule or interference in political processes, and the last (failed) coup attempt occurred 26 years ago. Furthermore, the country\u2019s political elite has a well-established commitment to democratic politics, informed in part by a track record of\u00a0elections that result in peaceful transfers of power.<\/a><\/p>\n

Given this background, it is easy to understand why some individuals and organisations have since\u00a0condemned<\/a>\u00a0Hichilema\u2019s remarks as irresponsible. This condemnation is necessary, but not sufficient. Zambians also need to understand why Hichilema is making such comments.<\/p>\n

Contrary to what some of his political opponents have argued, the president\u2019s threats were neither random nor a result of careless talk. They are deliberate and demonstrate how Hichilema is slowly becoming adept at undermining democratic institutions in a committed,\u00a0strategic<\/a>, and well-defined manner. If Zambians wish to avert the increasing restrictions on political and civil rights, they will do well not to underestimate the lengths to which he is prepared to go in his bid for re-election.<\/p>\n

Outside Hichilema\u2019s head, there is no coup plot in Zambia. The talk about people scheming to overthrow him and his vow to punish those responsible should be seen as part of his wider political strategy to undermine opposition forces and stay in power beyond 2026.<\/p>\n

Warning soldiers<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Hichilema\u2019s coup remarks were directed at different audiences for different objectives.<\/p>\n

The first was the military whom he was warning not to depose him. Here, understanding of the wider context is useful: the recent coups elsewhere on the continent have occurred against presidents labelled by their opponents as puppets of France. In Zambia, Hichilema has faced growing criticism that he is\u00a0a puppet Western powers<\/a>\u00a0too, but in his case of the US, UK, and EU. His administration\u2019s\u00a0policies<\/a>\u00a0in mining, energy, security, and foreign affairs have pushed the perception that he favours Western interests \u2013 a reversal of the position of his predecessor Edgar Lungu, who pivoted towards China and Russia.<\/p>\n

The characterisation of Hichilema as a Western puppet was amplified by the toxic fallout from the August election in neighbouring Zimbabwe, which saw the re-election of President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the ruling ZANU-PF.<\/p>\n

In the aftermath of that disputed poll, election observers from the southern bloc SADC criticised the process as having been\u00a0deeply flawed<\/a>, a verdict shared by most other international observers. Lashing out, senior figures in ZANU-PF\u00a0dismissed<\/a>\u00a0the report by the SADC mission, whose head was\u00a0controversially appointed<\/a>\u00a0by Hichilema as the current chair of the bloc. Zimbabwean leaders also went further in accusing the Zambian president of trying to influence the election by providing financial support to the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC).<\/p>\n

Hichilema, said ZANU-PF spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa, \u201cwants to become part of the charade of Western countries that always see Zimbabwean elections as a transition from ZANU-PF rule to some puppetry\u201d. Mutsvangwa continued by saying that the West wants to see the back of national liberation movements in South Africa and Namibia too. \u201cI do not know if Hichilema wants to become the new champion of Western neo-colonial interests in southern Africa,\u201d he added. This message even found support from some within South Africa\u2019s governing African National Congress (ANC), whose Secretary-General declared the outcome of Zimbabwe\u2019s election \u201ca victory over imperialist puppets<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

In warning that he would crush unspecified coup plotters, the Zambian president was attempting to make it look like there are elements in the military who may seek to emulate their colleagues in West and Central Africa. Behind this paranoia is also the knowledge that the government has failed to tackle the rising cost of living. The removal of most subsidies \u2013 at the instigation of the IMF \u2013 and falling value of the unstable kwacha have increased import costs and pushed up the price of fuel and corn meal, the country\u2019s staple, by over 100% since August 2021.<\/p>\n

The worst-affected are the urban poor on the Copperbelt and in Lusaka, where the president was\u00a0booed<\/a>\u00a0and accosted with chants of \u201chunger\u201d a day or two before he issued the coup speech. Although State House tried to play down these incidents as part of democratic expression, they demonstrate the changing public tide against Hichilema in urban areas.<\/p>\n

Previous coup attempts \u2013 both in the era of one-party rule and multiparty democracy \u2013 have all taken place during periods of steep increases in the cost of living. Though unsuccessful, most were\u00a0celebrated<\/a>\u00a0by urbanites on the Copperbelt and in Lusaka. While Zambia\u2019s\u00a0military<\/a>\u00a0has usually\u00a0intervened in support<\/a>\u00a0of democracy, Hichilema is concerned by the precedent. It is probably one that fed his fears that overzealous soldiers may seek to seize power, as their colleagues attempted to do against founding president Kenneth Kaunda in\u00a0June 1990<\/a>, and Frederick Chiluba in\u00a0October 1997<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Preparing Western allies<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The second audience Hichilema was speaking to are Western governments, who he was effectively preparing for a further crackdown on opposition leaders ahead of the 2026 election. His comments implicate his opponents in an imaginary coup threat, opening the door for them being arrested on bogus but non-bailable charges like treason.<\/p>\n

There is a well-established history of trumped-up charges being used against the political opposition in Zambia. For instance, in March 1993, President Chiluba accused the then main opposition of planning to illegally overthrow the government with foreign support. While no real evidence of the so-called \u201cZero Option Plan<\/a>\u201d was provided, officials detained 26 people on charges of treason and the president declared a state of emergency. More recently, in April 2017, Hichilema was himself detained on\u00a0treason<\/a>\u00a0charges for four months after his convoy failed to give way to President Lungu\u2019s motorcade, an act that was characterised as \u201clikely to cause death or grievous harm to the President of the Republic of Zambia, in order to usurp the executive power of the state\u201d.<\/p>\n

In these two cases, the then incumbents\u2019 motivations were the same: a sense of political insecurity and a desire to demonstrate control of national security forces.<\/p>\n

One reason why Hichilema is currently feeling vulnerable is the growing perception in Zambia that he appears to be\u00a0serving two interests<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 his own (mainly business) and those of external powers \u2013 rather than those of the population. Were opposition parties to field a common and credible candidate against him in 2026, they would be likely to win. Worried about this prospect, Hichilema,\u00a0elected only two years ago<\/a>, has launched a pilot clampdown on his opponents.<\/p>\n

Over the last 30 days alone, three opposition leaders \u2013\u00a0Edith Nawakwi<\/a>\u00a0of the Forum for Democracy and Development,\u00a0Sean Tembo<\/a>\u00a0of the Patriots for Economic Progress, and\u00a0Fred M\u2019membe<\/a>\u00a0of the Socialist Party (SP) \u2013 have all separately been arrested.<\/p>\n

For M\u2019membe, this was his third arrest this year alone. Following charges of \u201cunlawful discharge of a firearm\u201d, \u201clibel\u201d, and \u201cacts intended to cause grievous bodily harm\u201d, the government appears keen to bring a more serious charge against him such as treason. On 8 August 2023, Inspector General of Police Graphel Musamba held a\u00a0press conference<\/a>\u00a0in which he declared that socialism will not succeed in Zambia and vowed to crush the Socialist Party, accusing it of\u00a0\u201c<\/strong>panting for violence because they want to cut corners to reach their destiny\u201d. Musamba further claimed that M\u2019membe, who has seemingly cultivated close political ties with Moscow and Beijing, had used social media to comment on \u201cthe emerging juntas in West Africa\u2026 thinking that the same [can] be extended to this country\u201d. He added: \u201cWe are carefully studying the ingredients of the offence, and we will let you know in due course what his fate is going to be\u201d.<\/p>\n

In response, the Socialist Party leader attempted to sue the police chief for criminal\u00a0defamation<\/a>. Pursuing such charges, however, requires the consent of the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), who\u00a0declined<\/a>\u00a0M\u2019membe\u2019s request. This is not the first time Gilbert Phiri, Hichilema\u2019s former lawyer, has made partisan calls that have benefited the government. The DPP has previously\u00a0sanctioned<\/a>\u00a0the prosecution of three opposition figures, including M\u2019membe, on charges of criminal defamation brought by government officials.<\/p>\n

Within the last month, the police have also arrested the former first lady, Esther Lungu, for theft of motor vehicle and twice\u00a0refused<\/a>\u00a0to allow the opposition Patriotic Front (PF) to hold public rallies due to unspecified \u201csecurity concerns\u201d. Despite\u00a0condemnation<\/a>\u00a0of this continued suppression of rights to peaceful assembly, association, and free speech by the Law Association of Zambia, the government has intensified the violations.<\/p>\n

On 9 September, a battalion of police officers in full riot gear\u00a0dispersed<\/a>\u00a0an interdenominational church service on the Copperbelt to which Lungu was invited. The pastor who organised the church meeting was arrested and charged with \u201cconduct likely to cause breach of public peace<\/a>\u201d. Police had earlier attempted to block Lungu from traveling for the religious event. Earlier, on 7 September, the government had also\u00a0declined<\/a>\u00a0Lungu\u2019s request to travel abroad for medical review, a clear violation of his legal entitlements as a retired former president.<\/p>\n

At the heart of the government\u2019s manoeuvres against Lungu are Hichilema\u2019s fears that his predecessor harbours plans of a political comeback. Recently, the president ordered PF leaders to stop reorganising or face arrest. Overlooking its members\u2019 right of association, he declared: \u201cI want to send a message to the PF thugs. I can see they are regrouping now. The fact that we did not lock you up, that we did not arrest you is not that we are not capable. We are just kind people.\u00a0 If you start regrouping now, we will come after you in a heavy way.\u201d<\/p>\n

The highly-regarded retired archbishop of Lusaka, Telesphore Mpundu,\u00a0condemned<\/a>\u00a0these threats as \u201cprimitive politics\u201d, motivated by the desire \u201cto completely get rid of the opposition\u201d.<\/p>\n

Many people see these undemocratic actions as resembling the crackdown that Hichilema and the now governing United Party for National Development (UPND) endured while in opposition in the 2010s. The major difference is that the different interest groups that previously condemned similar attacks on democracy and human rights under Lungu are now mute for a variety of reasons. Appointments to government bodies have secured the silence of\u00a0erstwhile civic actors<\/a>, while intellectuals, mainly from Hichilema\u2019s ethnic Tonga group, who led the onslaught against the PF, have developed\u00a0a new career<\/a>: attacking those who criticise Hichilema, making excuses for and justifying his nascent authoritarian behaviour, while\u00a0ignoring<\/a>\u00a0his transgressions.<\/p>\n

Hichilema also feels that he has the personal support of key figures in the diplomatic community whose grovelling attitude towards him lends credibility to the charge that Western countries are prepared to ignore a leader\u2019s attacks on democracy if that leader serves their interests. These include the UK High Commissioner\u00a0Nicholas Woolley<\/a>\u00a0and the US ambassador\u00a0Michael Gonzales<\/a>, the latter of whom has \u2013 unlike his recent predecessors David Young, Daniel Foote, Eric Shultz, Mark Storella and Donald Booth \u2013 hardly shown any interest in questions of human rights and considers Hichilema \u201ca personal friend\u201d. Other diplomats, such as the recently arrived Swedish ambassador\u00a0Johan Hallenborg<\/a>, are not simply ignoring the violations but even attempting to construct an alternative reality by claiming that Hichilema, who has strategically\u00a0weakened<\/a>\u00a0civil society, has \u201cenhanced human rights and improved the civic space<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Like their governments, Western diplomats have so far conveniently avoided publicly criticising their malleable partner for the abuses of his administration partly because of the fear that doing so may inadvertently strengthen his main political opponents, who ideologically lean towards Russia and China. Regional rights bodies such as\u00a0Amnesty International<\/a>\u00a0and Human Rights Watch that previously highlighted violations with impressive commitment and efficiency now speak through absolute silence.<\/p>\n

Democracy on a knife-edge\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Emboldened by the lack of vocal outrage against his emerging authoritarian tendencies, Hichilema\u2019s claims of an impending coup serve as a convenient pretext for consolidating what he is already doing \u2013 eroding civil liberties \u2013 and stopping Western allies and rights bodies from calling him out. Knowing that he has their\u00a0support<\/a>\u00a0may make him feel comfortable in expanding the crackdown on opposition leaders and using the threat of what has happened to Western-backed presidents in West and Central Africa as a sufficient reason for Western governments to continue supporting him even if his actions erode democracy.<\/p>\n

As\u00a0mass hunger<\/a>\u00a0bites and poverty worsens due to the rising cost of living and doing business for most Zambians, will Hichilema, a man elected precisely to resolve these challenges and to advance democracy, resort to full-blown repression or authoritarian rule to sustain his hold on power? Only time will tell.<\/p>\n

\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640<\/p>\n

* Zambian writer, historian, and Senior Lecturer at Stellenbosch University in South Africa.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Sishuwa Sishuwa*   On 4 September 2023, Zambia\u2019s President Hakainde Hichilema\u00a0denounced\u00a0alleged coup plotters who he claimed were planning to undermine the country\u2019s democratic rule and stability by illegally seizing power. Coming after a\u00a0string\u00a0of military coups in West and Central African countries, his comments have attracted widespread attention across the continent and beyond. Hichilema\u2019s warning […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9153,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":7,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"African Arguments","source_url":"https:\/\/africanarguments.org\/2023\/09\/why-is-zambia-president-warning-off-non-existent-coup-plotters\/","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"0","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"1"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,35],"tags":[1451,536,394],"class_list":["post-9152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-southern-africa","category-ana-politics","tag-coup-plotters","tag-hakainde-hichilema","tag-zambia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9152","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9152"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9152\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9153"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9152"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9152"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9152"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}