{"id":8904,"date":"2023-08-21T14:11:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-21T14:11:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=8904"},"modified":"2023-08-21T14:11:54","modified_gmt":"2023-08-21T14:11:54","slug":"an-expanded-brics-could-redefine-global-politics-but-adding-new-members-isnt-straightforward","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/8904\/an-expanded-brics-could-redefine-global-politics-but-adding-new-members-isnt-straightforward\/","title":{"rendered":"An expanded BRICS could redefine global politics, but adding new members isn’t straightforward"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Bhaso Ndzendze*<\/strong>, & Siphamandla Zondi*<\/strong><\/p>\n

Eager to\u00a0escape perceived western domination<\/a>,\u00a0several countries<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 mostly in the global south \u2013 are looking to join the\u00a0Brics<\/a>\u00a0bloc. The five-country bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is also looking to grow its global partnerships.<\/p>\n

What\u00a0began in 2001<\/a>\u00a0as an acronym for four of the fastest growing states, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), is projected to account for 45% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms by 2030. It has evolved into a political formation as well.<\/p>\n

Crucial to this was these countries\u2019 decision to form their own club\u00a0in 2009<\/a>, instead of joining an expanded G7 as envisioned by former Goldman Sachs CEO\u00a0Jim O\u2019Neill<\/a>, who coined the term \u201cBric\u201d.\u00a0Internal cohesion<\/a>\u00a0on key issues has emerged and continues to be refined, despite challenges.<\/p>\n

South Africa joined the group after a Chinese-initiated invitation\u00a0in 2010<\/a>; a boost for then president Jacob Zuma\u2019s administration, which was eager to pivot further to the east. The bloc also gained by having a key African player and regional leader.<\/p>\n

Ever since, the grouping has taken on a more pointedly political tone, particularly on the need to\u00a0reform global institutions<\/a>, in addition to its original economic raison d\u2019etre.<\/p>\n

The possibility of its enlargement has dominated headlines in the run up to its 15th summit in Johannesburg\u00a0on 22-24 August<\/a>.<\/p>\n

We are political scientists whose research interests<\/a>\u00a0include\u00a0changes<\/a>\u00a0to the global order and emerging alternative centres of power. In our view, it won\u2019t be easy to expand the bloc. That\u2019s because the group is still focused on harmonising its vision, and the potential new members do not readily make the cut.<\/p>\n

Some may even bring destabilising dynamics for the current composition of the formation. This matters because it tells us that the envisioned change in the global order is likely to be much slower. Simply put, while some states are opposed to western\u00a0hegemony<\/a>, they do not yet agree among themselves on what the new alternative should be.<\/p>\n

Evolution of BRICS<\/strong><\/h3>\n

BRICS\u2019 overtly political character\u00a0partially draws<\/a>\u00a0on a long history of non-alignment as far back as the\u00a0Bandung Conference of 1955<\/a>. It was attended mostly by recently decolonised states and independence movements intent on asserting themselves against Cold War superpowers \u2013 the Soviet Union and the United States.<\/p>\n

BRICS has come to be viewed as\u00a0challenging the counter hegemony<\/a>\u00a0of the US and its allies, seen as meddling in the internal affairs of other states.<\/p>\n

Reuters estimates that\u00a0more than 40 states<\/a>\u00a0are aspiring to join BRICS. South African diplomat Anil Sooklal says 13 had\u00a0formally applied<\/a>\u00a0by May 2023.<\/p>\n

Many, though not all, of the aspiring joiners have this overtly political motivation of countering US hegemony. The other important incentive is access to funds from the BRICS\u2019\u00a0New Development Bank<\/a>. This is especially pronounced in the post-COVID climate in which many economies are\u00a0yet to fully recover<\/a>. Of course the two can overlap, as in the case of Iran.<\/p>\n

The notable applicants have\u00a0included<\/a>\u00a0Saudi Arabia, Belarus,\u00a0Ethiopia<\/a>,\u00a0Argentina<\/a>,\u00a0Algeria, Iran<\/a>, Mexico, and\u00a0Turkey<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Expanded BRICS<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A strategically expanded BRICS would be seismic for the world order, principally in economic terms.<\/p>\n

Key among the club\u2019s reported priorities is\u00a0reduction of reliance<\/a>\u00a0on the US dollar (\u201cde-dollarisation\u201d of the global economy). One of the hurdles to this is the lack of buy-in by much of the world. Though some states may disagree with the dollar\u2019s dominance, they still see it as the most reliable.<\/p>\n

Given the extent of globalisation, it\u2019s unlikely that there will be attempts to chip away at the west\u2019s access to strategic minerals and trade routes as happened during the\u00a0Suez Crisis of 1956<\/a>, at the height of the Cold War.<\/p>\n

Instead, the new joiners would likely use their new BRICS membership to better bargain with their western partners, having more options on hand.<\/p>\n

Herein lies the challenge (and the paradox) with BRICS expansion. On one hand, the grouping is not yet offering anything concrete to justify such drastic measures as de-dollarisation. On the other, the current five members also need to be selective about who they admit.<\/p>\n

Among the considerations must surely be the track record of the applicants as well as their closeness to the west. The experience of having had a right-wing leader such as former Brazilian president\u00a0Jair Bolsonaro<\/a>\u00a0in its midst must have been a lesson about the need to be circumspect when admitting new members.<\/p>\n

Weighing the likely contenders<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In this regard, aspirants such as Saudi Arabia and Mexico seem the least likely to make the cut in the short term. That\u2019s despite the Saudis\u2019 oil wealth and Mexico\u2019s\u00a0leftist-progressive<\/a>\u00a0leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Although they might be currently experiencing rocky relations with Washington, they have proven to be capable of rapprochement following previous disagreements with the US, with which they seem inextricably intertwined.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia has a long-term military relationship with the US, while Mexico is the US\u2019s\u00a0number-one trading partner<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Of equal importance in the evaluation of potential new members is the relationship the aspirants have with the existing BRICS members. This is because another crucial lesson has been the tiff between two of its largest members,\u00a0China and India<\/a>, over their disputed border. As a result of the uneasy relationship between two of its members, the bloc has become alert to the importance of\u00a0direct bilateral relations and dispute resolution<\/a>\u00a0among its constituent leaders.<\/p>\n

Among the applicants, Saudi Arabia, which has had a fractious relationship with Moscow in the past, seems to face an uphill climb. It also has difficult relations with Iran, another applicant, despite their recent rapprochement.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The country which seems the most suitable to join BRICS for ideological reasons, and will expand the bloc\u2019s footing in the Caribbean, is Cuba. It enjoys strong ties with the existing members. It also has solid \u201ccounter-hegemonic\u201d credentials, having been the b\u00eate noire of the US for more than 60 years.<\/p>\n

Cuba is also a leader in the Latin American left and enjoys strong ties with many states in Central and South America (particularly with Guatemala,\u00a0Honduras<\/a>,\u00a0Nicaragua<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Venezuela<\/a>). Membership would boost its influence.<\/p>\n

Character matters<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If an expanded BRICS is to be an agent for change on the world scene, it will need to be capable of action. Having rivals, or states that are at least ambivalent towards each other, seems anathema to that.<\/p>\n

Eager to proceed cautiously and expand strategically, the current BRICS states seems likely, at least in the short term, to pursue a\u00a0BRICS-plus<\/a>\u00a0strategy. In other words, there may emerge different strata of membership, with full membership granted to states that meet the group\u2019s criteria over time.<\/p>\n

It is thus not mere expansion, but the character of the expansion which will guide the five principals on whether they grow from that number.<\/p>\n

_________<\/p>\n

*Associate Professor (International Relations), University of Johannesburg<\/em><\/p>\n

*Acting Director: Institute for Pan-African Thought & Conversation, University of Johannesburg<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What\u00a0began in 2001\u00a0as an acronym for four of the fastest growing states, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), is projected to account for 45% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms by 2030. It has evolved into a political formation as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":5,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"The Conversation","source_url":"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/an-expanded-brics-could-reset-world-politics-but-picking-new-members-isnt-straightforward-210507","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"0","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"1"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[240,1356,1358,1355,1261,1260,1354,396,114,1349,1257,1357,373,339,122,502],"class_list":["post-8904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ana-politics","tag-algeria","tag-argentina","tag-bandung-conference-of-1955","tag-belarus","tag-brazil","tag-brics","tag-brics-new-menbers","tag-china","tag-ethiopia","tag-india","tag-iran","tag-mexico","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-south-africa","tag-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8904\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}