{"id":8806,"date":"2023-08-03T12:35:43","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T12:35:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=8806"},"modified":"2023-08-03T12:35:43","modified_gmt":"2023-08-03T12:35:43","slug":"what-led-to-the-niger-coup-an-expert-lists-three-driving-factors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/8806\/what-led-to-the-niger-coup-an-expert-lists-three-driving-factors\/","title":{"rendered":"What led to the Niger coup? An expert lists three driving factors"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Olayinka Ajala*<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At an emergency meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, on 30 July, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)\u00a0demanded<\/a>\u00a0the \u201cimmediate release and reinstatement\u201d of Niger\u2019s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. He had been held by the military since 19 July.<\/p>\n

The regional bloc gave the military in Niger a\u00a0one-week ultimatum<\/a>\u00a0to comply and warned it would take all measures necessary \u2013 including force \u2013 to restore constitutional order.<\/p>\n

On 28 July, the head of Niger\u2019s presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani,\u00a0declared himself<\/a>\u00a0head of state after the military seized power.<\/p>\n

Beyond warning against any regional and foreign interventions, the military leaders in Niger have given no indications of ways forward.<\/p>\n

This coup d\u2019etat will have a significant impact on peace and stability in Niger and the entire Sahel region.<\/p>\n

Although Niger has recently enjoyed its longest democratic rule since independence, there has been a constant threat of coups. When Bazoum was elected president in 2021, there was a\u00a0coup attempt<\/a>\u00a0about 48 hours before his inauguration. It failed as presidential guards fought off the coup plotters.<\/p>\n

As a political scientist with expertise on international security, conflict analysis and governance in Africa, including knowledge on Niger, I\u00a0explained<\/a>\u00a0then, the coup attempt pointed to deep fissures in the country. It suggested that the military had not fully embraced democracy.<\/p>\n

The current coup plotters have blamed rising insecurity and a lack of economic growth. They\u00a0stated<\/a>\u00a0that the intervention was necessary to avoid \u201cthe gradual and inevitable demise\u201d of the country. I believe, however, there are other issues that precipitated the latest coup d\u2019etat. These are: ethnicity; the presence of foreign forces; and the weakness of regional bodies.<\/p>\n

Factors that led to the coup<\/strong><\/h3>\n

There are no doubts that the rise in insecurity and\u00a0declining economic prospects<\/a>\u00a0contributed to fragility in the country.<\/p>\n

Despite the increase in foreign forces, especially from the\u00a0US<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0France<\/a>, and military bases in Niger, the leadership has been unable to stop insurgent attacks. There are several insurgent groups, such as\u00a0Al-Qaeda<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Islamic State<\/a>\u00a0affiliates, as well as\u00a0Boko Haram<\/a>\u00a0operating in the country.<\/p>\n

These attacks have resulted in\u00a0thousands of deaths and displacements<\/a>\u00a0in the last decade. Hundreds of youths in the capital, Niamey,\u00a0gathered to celebrate<\/a>\u00a0the July coup, waving Russian flags and chanting \u201cWagner\u201d. This suggests that some people in Niger believe the military, supported by Russia and the private military contractor,\u00a0Wagner group<\/a>, would do a better job of fighting insurgents.<\/p>\n

In addition to insecurity and economic stagnation, three other issues help explain the recent coup d\u2019etat.<\/p>\n

First, the debate over the ethnicity and legitimacy of Bazoum was an issue during the last election campaign. Bazoum is from Niger\u2019s ethnic Arab minority and has always been\u00a0labelled<\/a>\u00a0as having foreign origins.<\/p>\n

This did not sit well within the military circle, which is predominantly composed of the larger ethnic groups \u2013 even though Bazoum got\u00a0about 56%<\/a>\u00a0of the vote and is from the same party as former president Mahamadou Issoufou.<\/p>\n

There is a lot of emphasis on ethnic military composition in the country; understanding this helped Issoufou complete two terms as president. Appointments in the military are made\u00a0along ethnic lines<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Second, the large number of foreign military troops and bases in the country has not been well received by the military. They believe this undermines them. Niger is a key ally of western countries in the fight against insurgency in the region. France\u2019s\u00a0huge investments<\/a>\u00a0in Niger\u2019s mining sector are another reason for its interest in security.<\/p>\n

In 2019, the US opened a\u00a0drone base<\/a>\u00a0in Niger despite protests. As I have\u00a0pointed out<\/a>\u00a0before, the drone base could make Niger a target for terrorists and increase instability.<\/p>\n

In 2022, France and other European allies withdrew their forces from neighbouring Mali. Bazoum was quick to invite them to Niger. The\u00a0Nigerien military leadership<\/a>\u00a0and some influential individuals in the country denounced the increase in foreign forces.<\/p>\n

Third, I suggest the failure of regional organisations such as ECOWAS and the African Union to take a firm stance against military power seizures in Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali emboldened the Nigerien military. ECOWAS leaders have\u00a0now threathened to use force<\/a>\u00a0to restore Bazoum if the coup plotters do not reinstate him.<\/p>\n

In the last four years, there have been\u00a0seven coup d\u2019etats<\/a>\u00a0in the region. Three were successful. Leaders of ECOWAS and the African Union have threatened sanctions on these three countries, but nothing much has been done to deter other opportunistic military leaders.<\/p>\n

In a round table organised by the think tank Chatham House London on the impact of military intervention in west Africa, one of the leaders from the region stated that they kept avenues of communication open with the three military presidents as a courtesy. This creates an impression that there is no deterrence for military takeovers.<\/p>\n

Implications for Niger and the region<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The latest coup d\u2019etat has severe consequences for Niger and the entire Sahel region. Niger is a strong ally of western nations, especially France, the US and the European Union in fighting insurgency and curbing illegal migration to Europe.<\/p>\n

Efforts to address these issues will be affected. And the new military leaders will want to use these issues as leverage in negotiations and to force acceptance of the new regime.<\/p>\n

The new leaders in Niger might also engage with the Wagner group to combat the Islamist insurgency. The leader of the group has already\u00a0praised<\/a>\u00a0them for seizing power. The influence of Russia and Wagner in the region could grow.<\/p>\n

Yet Wagner has been unable to halt terrorist advancement in Mali and Burkina Faso.<\/p>\n

Finally, a successful military takeover in Niger would be a major drawback for democracy in the region and Africa as a whole. The military regimes of Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso already plan\u00a0to form a \u201cmilitary alliance\u201d<\/a>, supposedly to combat insecurity.<\/p>\n

African leaders need to do more to prove that they are working for the masses.<\/p>\n

\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640<\/p>\n

*Senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett University<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At an emergency meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, on 30 July, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)\u00a0demanded\u00a0the \u201cimmediate release and reinstatement\u201d of Niger\u2019s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. He had been held by the military since 19 July.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"The Conversation","source_url":"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-caused-the-coup-in-niger-an-expert-outlines-three-driving-factors-210721","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"0","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"1"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,27],"tags":[1314,41,383,1295],"class_list":["post-8806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ana-politics","category-west-africa","tag-economic-community-of-west-african-states","tag-ecowas","tag-niger","tag-niger-coup"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8806\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}