{"id":8670,"date":"2023-07-12T15:18:25","date_gmt":"2023-07-12T15:18:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=8670"},"modified":"2023-07-12T15:18:25","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T15:18:25","slug":"ethiopia-aspires-to-join-the-brics-group-of-countries-what-are-the-benefits-and-downsides","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/8670\/ethiopia-aspires-to-join-the-brics-group-of-countries-what-are-the-benefits-and-downsides\/","title":{"rendered":"Ethiopia aspires to join the BRICS group of countries: What are the benefits and downsides?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Padraig Carmody<\/a>*<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A few years ago, the BRICS grouping \u2013 Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa \u2013 had lost salience because three of its members were in severe economic difficulty. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are primarily natural resource exporters and were badly affected by the global\u00a0commodity price bust<\/a>\u00a0of 2014.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s\u00a0invasion<\/a>\u00a0of Ukraine has now given BRICS a new geopolitical salience as the members and their respective allies respond to events.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the emerging world order there is also now increased demand<\/a>\u00a0to join BRICS, in part as a countervailing power to \u201cthe west\u201d.\u00a0Argentina<\/a>,\u00a0Saudi Arabia<\/a>\u00a0and lately,\u00a0Ethiopia<\/a>, have expressed strong interest in becoming members.<\/p>\n

I have researched the political economy of\u00a0globalisation in Africa<\/a>\u00a0over the last 30 years. I have specifically examined the scramble for Africa by\u00a0the US and China<\/a>,\u00a0South Africa\u2019s involvement in BRICS<\/a>, the nature of\u00a0BRICS engagement with Africa<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0market and resource access by BRICS in southern Africa<\/a>. It would be a major coup for Ethiopia if it were able to join the grouping as it would raise its global profile, allow it to interact and coordinate more closely with some of the major world powers and move the discourse beyond the recent civil war there, potentially enabling it to attract more investment.<\/p>\n

Opportunities<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ethiopia has\u00a0cited<\/a>\u00a0its key role in founding the African Union and other institutions, along with its national interest as grounds for seeking BRICS membership. In my opinion, there are five key reasons why Ethiopia would want to join the grouping.<\/p>\n

Deteriorating relations with western powers<\/strong>: Ethiopia has historically depended on substantial western support through\u00a0aid<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0security<\/a>\u00a0cooperation. But its relations with the west\u00a0have soured<\/a>\u00a0as a result of the\u00a0civil war<\/a>, in which human rights violations were\u00a0reported<\/a>. Joining BRICS would make the country more geostrategically important, perhaps encouraging western powers to downplay human rights concerns,\u00a0as they have in the past<\/a>\u00a0in the interests of \u201crealpolitik\u201d.<\/p>\n

Alternative growth frontier<\/strong>: Ethiopia remains one of Africa\u2019s fastest growing economies, at\u00a0over 5% a year<\/a>. It has developed strong\u00a0economic ties<\/a>\u00a0with China in recent decades. Similarly,\u00a0Indian companies<\/a>\u00a0have been\u00a0acquiring land<\/a>\u00a0in Ethiopia. China and India are now Africa\u2019s\u00a0two largest<\/a>\u00a0single trading partners (not counting the European Union as a single entity). Joining BRICS would signal openness and lead to greater cooperation through platforms like the business council and forum. It could also add impetus to the \u201cresurgent Ethiopia<\/a>\u201d narrative, an image the authorities are keen to promote to attract investments.<\/p>\n

Negotiations over finance<\/strong>: The Ethiopian government is\u00a0negotiating<\/a>\u00a0a financial package with the International Monetary Fund. Joining BRICS might give it greater leverage. Western powers, which largely control the IMF, might be more wary of alienating Ethiopia in BRICS and driving it further \u201cinto the arms\u201d of China. The creation of a new BRICS currency, to challenge US dollar hegemony, is on the agenda and its existing Contingency Reserve Arrangement already partly competes with the IMF.<\/p>\n

Non-interference policy<\/strong>: BRICS powers rhetorically largely subscribe to\u00a0non-interference<\/a>\u00a0in the sovereign affairs of other states, with the qualification that President Lula de Silva of Brazil\u00a0talked about<\/a>\u00a0\u201cnon-indifference\u201d to human rights when he was previously in power and Russia has violated the principle through invasions and election interference, amongst others. Ethiopia may be interested in the political cover that joining BRICS would provide. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has received political cover from China, and some would argue from South Africa. The Ethiopian government may be keen to avoid human rights governance conditions attached to new loans, aid or debt relief from the west.<\/p>\n

A prime minister seeking new friends:<\/strong>\u00a0BRICS membership would help restore the tarnished image of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who is a Nobel peace prize recipient. Ahmed was heavily\u00a0criticised<\/a>\u00a0as a war-monger during the civil war in Ethiopia\u2019s Tigray region. Joining the BRICS club would show that his government is still politically acceptable to some major world powers.<\/p>\n

The risks<\/h2>\n

There would of course be risks in Ethiopia joining the BRICS. Western powers might perceive it as drifting into the alternative geopolitical bloc or alignment, which could reduce aid and investment from them. But this could also have advantages for Ethiopia\u2019s relations with the west by making the country more geo-strategically important.<\/p>\n

Based on past experience, Ethiopia would be an unlikely addition to the grouping. The last and only country to be admitted after the group\u2019s founding was South Africa in 2010. Other countries have applied and have not been admitted. BRICS now operates in what is sometimes described as a\u00a0BRICS-plus<\/a>\u00a0format with countries such as Egypt already members of its development bank and all African leaders invited to the up-coming BRICS\u2019 summit in South Africa.<\/p>\n

Ethiopia\u2019s economy,\u00a0estimated<\/a>\u00a0at around US$126.78 billion in 2022, is less than half the size of\u00a0South Africa\u2019s US$405.87 billion<\/a>. South Africa is by far the smallest economy in the BRICS. But in some ways Ethiopia might be seen as a more representative African country in BRICS than South Africa. Ethiopia hosts the African Union headquarters and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Its capital, Addis Ababa, is sometimes described as the continent\u2019s diplomatic capital. The outcome of Ethiopia\u2019s application will likely be known after the next summit in August.<\/p>\n

\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640<\/p>\n

*Professor in Geography, Trinity College Dublin<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A few years ago, the BRICS grouping \u2013 Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa \u2013 had lost salience because three of its members were in severe economic difficulty. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are primarily natural resource exporters and were badly affected by the global\u00a0commodity price bust\u00a0of 2014.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8671,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":25,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"The Conversation","source_url":"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/ethiopia-wants-to-join-the-brics-group-of-nations-an-expert-unpacks-the-pros-and-cons-209141","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"0","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"1"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,36],"tags":[1261,1260,396,114,1262,373],"class_list":["post-8670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis-reports","category-ana-economy","tag-brazil","tag-brics","tag-china","tag-ethiopia","tag-india-and-south-africa","tag-russia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}