{"id":21868,"date":"2026-08-22T16:38:50","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T16:38:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=21868"},"modified":"2026-08-24T16:44:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T16:44:17","slug":"zambias-chaotic-but-decisive-election-government-demonstrates-strength-democracy-shows-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/21868\/zambias-chaotic-but-decisive-election-government-demonstrates-strength-democracy-shows-weakness\/","title":{"rendered":"Zambia’s chaotic but decisive election: government demonstrates strength, democracy shows weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Michael Wahman* <\/strong>& Lindsay Favero*<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Across southern Africa, sitting presidents have faced a\u00a0wave of turnovers<\/a>\u00a0and electoral setbacks in the past few years.<\/p>\n

Malawi<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Botswana<\/a>\u00a0saw opposition victories. In\u00a0Namibia<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0South Africa<\/a>, incumbents were re-elected, but with significantly smaller majorities.<\/p>\n

In Zambia, the Patriotic Front suffered a humiliating\u00a0defeat<\/a>\u00a0in 2021 as voters reacted to poor\u00a0economic performance<\/a>. This resulted in a new government led by\u00a0Hakainde Hichilema<\/a>\u00a0and his United Party for National Development.<\/p>\n

Hichilema\u2019s government has ruled in a time of extreme global economic anxieties. Conflict, supply chain interruptions and aid withdrawal have piled pressure on governments, not least in Africa. In southern Africa, erratic weather conditions have brought droughts, food insecurity and energy shortages, adding to economic woes. In this environment, how did Zambia\u2019s incumbent party secure such a decisive re-election in 2026?<\/p>\n

In an impressive showing, Hichilema secured an increased 61% of the vote compared to 38% for the main opposition challenger, Brian Mundubile. However, accusations of\u00a0fraud and manipulation<\/a>\u00a0have tainted the election.<\/p>\n

We are politics scholars who focus on\u00a0democracy<\/a>\u00a0and elections in the region. We\u2019ve been following\u00a0developments<\/a>\u00a0in Zambia as the vote turned increasingly\u00a0controversial<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In our view, however, it would be a mistake to understand the party\u2019s victory as purely a reflection of manipulation. Other important factors contributed, including voter approval of the government\u2019s handling of the economic crisis as well as education, healthcare and food security.<\/p>\n

Was it fraud?<\/h2>\n

While many of us political scholars had anticipated a decisive victory for the United Party for National Development, academics Nic Cheeseman and Nicole Beardsworth published a remarkable\u00a0article<\/a>\u00a0days after the election analysing voting patterns. The numbers were not adding up.<\/p>\n

Election results\u00a0announced<\/a>\u00a0by the Electoral Commission of Zambia showed improbably high voter turnout in many government-party strongholds. Even more suspicious were large and illogical differences in votes cast in parliamentary and presidential elections in some constituencies.<\/p>\n

This was compounded by a highly unusual country-wide\u00a0suspension<\/a>\u00a0of vote counting imposed by the\u00a0electoral commission<\/a>\u00a0the day after the election, amid reports of\u00a0violence<\/a>. The European Union Election Observation Mission\u00a0noted<\/a>\u00a0that the \u201coverall conduct of tabulation (vote counting) deteriorated significantly\u201d after the lifting of the suspension.<\/p>\n

If fraud was indeed perpetrated inside ruling party strongholds, the critical question is whether it is decisive. Focusing only on 16 particularly suspicious constituencies,\u00a0analysis<\/a>\u00a0found a difference of\u00a0170,000 votes<\/a>\u00a0between the number of presidential and parliamentary votes, but the nationwide vote difference was more than 1.1 million between the president and the opposition challenger.<\/p>\n

Much more clarity came after the respected domestic election observer network, the Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG), published their regular\u00a0Parallel Voting Tabulation<\/a>\u00a0survey. Indeed, the parallel results did not match the official results. It appears United Party for National Development votes were inflated.<\/p>\n

Importantly, however, the monitoring group still had the party as the runaway winner in the presidential election. According to their survey, Hichilema received 56% of the vote (give or take 1.7 percentage points), compared to Mundubile\u2019s 42%. In other words, manipulation does not seem to be enough to explain Hichilema\u2019s decisive victory.<\/p>\n

His party\u2019s re-election was a reflection of both opposition weakness and government strength.<\/p>\n

Opposition weakness<\/h2>\n

Throughout most of the presidential term, voters expected a re-match between Hichilema and former president Edgar Lungu. However, Lungu unexpectedly\u00a0died<\/a>\u00a0just over a year before the election and the opposition was left without a leader.<\/p>\n

Internal succession struggles within the Patriotic Front tore the party into factions. And the\u00a0Registrar of Societies<\/a>, which regulates political parties, frustrated attempts to register new political challengers. Polling voters after Lungu\u2019s death, we did not find any opposition party with more than 12% declared\u00a0support<\/a>.<\/p>\n

After dramatic nominations, Mundubile emerged as the main opposition candidate. He ran\u00a0under the banner<\/a>\u00a0of a previously obscure opposition party, National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity. Mundubile\u2019s strategy was to revitalise the former Patriotic Front coalition. In campaigns, he proudly\u00a0declared<\/a>\u00a0that as president he would \u201crule like Lungu\u201d.<\/p>\n

This strategy may have been sound for uniting the opposition. However, to win national elections, emulating a coalition that voters soundly removed from office five years ago was not enough.<\/p>\n

The final performance was nonetheless impressive for a party that was virtually nonexistent three months earlier. It won more votes than the government in most areas where the Patriotic Front dominated in 2021. It also made inroads among urban voters, a notoriously volatile voter group in Zambia<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, the 2026 election reaffirms an old\u00a0truth<\/a>\u00a0about Zambian politics: elections are won by mobilising the base and winning regional strongholds with big margins.<\/p>\n

Given the apparently inflated votes in many of these strongholds, we need to treat official vote counts with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, some patterns are so clear that we can still draw some conclusions.<\/p>\n

Mundubile\u2019s party simply lacked the ground organisation needed to win. And the government was winning respectable shares of the vote in areas that were supposedly opposition strongholds.<\/p>\n

Government strength<\/h2>\n

While we will probably never know the real voter turnout, independent estimates put it at around\u00a054%<\/a>\u00a0of registered voters. In the last election, it was\u00a071%<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In 2021, voters were highly motivated to vote and oust a highly\u00a0unpopular<\/a>\u00a0government. This wasn\u2019t the case in 2026.<\/p>\n

Key to the government\u2019s popularity is its strong handling of the economy. The government successfully restructured debt, kept inflation under control, and delivered steady\u00a0growth<\/a>. Voters\u00a0credited<\/a>\u00a0government with stepping up drought initiatives to ease the suffering of rural Zambians.<\/p>\n

Our\u00a0poll<\/a>\u00a0showed strong approval of the government\u2019s performance on education, healthcare and food security. Hichilema\u2019s approval rating was measured at an unusually high\u00a079%<\/a>. His party\u2019s campaign posters touted slogans such as \u201ccontinuity\u201d, a globally rare campaign message in days of anti-incumbent sentiment.<\/p>\n

A weakening of democracy<\/h2>\n

A decisive victory leaves Hichilema with a strong mandate and a weakened opposition.<\/p>\n

His party is now looking to gain a comfortable majority in parliament. This dominance was certainly helped by\u00a0controversial<\/a>\u00a0constitutional changes instituted just ahead of the election. A new\u00a0bill<\/a>\u00a0created new constituencies, expanded presidentially nominated seats, and introduced new seats for women, youth, and persons with disabilities. This aided the party.<\/p>\n

It has also asserted stronger party discipline. The debate over the bill ignited infighting, but the election seemed to settle the contest. Hichilema took a hard line against MPs who voted against it. He now leads an increasingly unified and loyal party.<\/p>\n

However, the election is not settled and leaves many questions unanswered. The opposition intends challenging the results in the Constitutional Court. Crucially, they will have to show that manipulation changed the outcome. While it will be hard to argue it did, it looks like it may have affected the proportional distribution of parliamentary seats.<\/p>\n

Generally, the election has weakened Zambia\u2019s democratic credentials in an environment where western pressure to protect democratic institutions is weaker<\/a>\u00a0than it has been in decades.<\/p>\n

Not only did the election itself raise questions, but also a mysterious security operation the day after. This\u00a0targeted<\/a>\u00a0opposition officials, including Mundubile. It left one person dead and several more detained. It raises serious\u00a0human rights concerns<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This will be Hichilema\u2019s last term, and the battle over who succeeds him is likely to begin soon. How his party uses its new dominance, whether to manage succession or to change the rules to consolidate its position further, will shape Zambian politics in the years to come.<\/p>\n

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\n* Professor, Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin<\/em><\/p>\n

* PhD Student, Michigan State University<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hichilema\u2019s government has ruled in a time of extreme global economic anxieties. Conflict, supply chain interruptions and aid withdrawal have piled pressure on governments, not least in Africa. In southern Africa, erratic weather conditions have brought droughts, food insecurity and energy shortages, adding to economic woes. In this environment, how did Zambia\u2019s incumbent party secure such a decisive re-election in 2026?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":21869,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_comment_section":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","source_name":"The Conversation","source_url":"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/zambias-messy-but-decisive-election-government-shows-strength-democracy-shows-weakness-289953","subtitle":""},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2362,35,30],"tags":[394],"class_list":["post-21868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-ana-politics","category-southern-africa","tag-zambia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21868"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21873,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21868\/revisions\/21873"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}