{"id":21137,"date":"2026-06-15T15:20:29","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T15:20:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=21137"},"modified":"2026-06-15T15:20:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T15:20:29","slug":"the-promise-and-risks-of-kenyas-ambitious-new-strategy-to-close-refugee-camps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/21137\/the-promise-and-risks-of-kenyas-ambitious-new-strategy-to-close-refugee-camps\/","title":{"rendered":"The promise and risks of Kenya’s ambitious new strategy to close refugee camps"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Edwin Mutyenyoka, & Franzisca Zanker<\/a>*<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kenya hosts\u00a0nearly a million refugees<\/a>, mainly from South Sudan and Somalia. Many of them have been living in refugee camps for decades.<\/em><\/p>\n

Now, the country is attempting a major shift in refugee policy. The Kenyan government and the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) developed the\u00a0Shirika Plan<\/a>, launching it in\u00a0March 2025<\/a>. The policy aims to move refugees away from long-term encampment and integrate them in society.<\/em><\/p>\n

Drawing on their\u00a0research<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0refugee governance<\/a>\u00a0and migration in Kenya, Edwin Mutyenyoka and Franzisca Zanker explain the opportunities and challenges the plan presents for refugees and host communities.<\/em><\/p>\n

What is the Shirika Plan?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Shirika Plan seeks to shift refugee management away from a camp-based system largely overseen by the UN towards a government-led model centred on inclusion into the local economy. The plan is a by-product of Kenya\u2019s\u00a0Refugee Act<\/a>\u00a0of 2021, which seeks to include and protect refugees better.<\/p>\n

The plan builds on the success of two pilot models: the\u00a0Kalobeyei Integrated Socio-Economic Development Plan<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Garissa Integrated Socio-Economic Plan<\/a>. They showed that\u00a0refugee inclusion can strengthen both refugee and host economies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Shirika Plan will convert camps into county-administered municipalities. There will be investment in roads, water systems, healthcare and education in places that host refugees. Developments are designed to serve refugees and host communities.<\/p>\n

The plan is closely aligned with the\u00a0UN\u2019s refugee<\/a>\u00a0frameworks<\/a>. These encourage governments to move beyond emergency assistance and towards allowing refugees to work, use public services and contribute to local economies.<\/p>\n

The plan\u2019s\u00a0six pillars<\/a>\u00a0include sustainable economic development and climate action.<\/p>\n

Implementation is expected to take place in three phases and requires an\u00a0estimated US$943 million<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The first phase (2025-2028) is the transition period. It lays the foundations: putting regulatory and policy frameworks in place and turning camps into municipalities. There\u2019s an emphasis on building local capacity too.<\/p>\n

The second phase (2029-2032) is the stabilisation period. It will evaluate the transition, and strengthen institutional capacity and financial management. This phase will also build on peaceful co-existence between refugees and host communities.<\/p>\n

The final phase (2033-2036) \u2013 the resilience period \u2013 aims to fortify financial structures, diversify revenue and build the resilience of communities. This is to reduce dependence on external support.<\/p>\n

Why does Kenya need such a plan?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Kenya has become a major destination for both forced and economic migrants in the region. This is due, in part, to the country\u2019s\u00a0relative political and economic stability<\/a>. A higher\u00a0Human Development Index<\/a>, vibrant\u00a0secondary economy<\/a>\u00a0and a largely\u00a0welcoming host society<\/a>\u00a0have created a good environment for refugees.<\/p>\n

Kenya was home to\u00a0954,851 refugees and asylum seekers<\/a>\u00a0in 2025. This makes it the fifth biggest host in Africa and 13th largest in the world.<\/p>\n

Kakuma and Dadaab refugee camps in the northern region are home to over\u00a0800,000 refugees and asylum seekers<\/a>\u00a0between them. They are two of the biggest shelters for forced migrants in the world.<\/p>\n

Most of the refugees in these camps \u2013 mostly from Sudan and Somalia \u2013 have lived there for\u00a0up to 30 years<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In addition, surveys by organisations such as the\u00a0Mixed Migration Centre<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0IOM Kenya<\/a>\u00a0estimate that between 100,000 and 200,000 refugees \u2013 mostly not registered \u2013 live in cities like Nairobi and Mombasa.<\/p>\n

Kenya has gone through significant challenges, however, between the\u00a0Refugee Act of 2021<\/a>\u00a0and the launch of the Shirika Plan in 2025. A\u00a0severe economic crisis<\/a>\u00a0ignited fierce protests and put\u00a0mounting pressure<\/a>\u00a0on public services. In addition,\u00a0humanitarian aid cuts<\/a>, both globally and in Kenya, have been swift and severe.<\/p>\n

Rather than relying on repeated emergency appeals, the Shirika Plan aims to attract development financing, while reducing tensions between refugees and host communities through shared access to services and economic opportunities.<\/p>\n

This reflects a broader\u00a0shift<\/a>\u00a0towards linking emergency assistance with longer-term economic and social inclusion.<\/p>\n

The plan also offers a chance to address\u00a0protracted displacement<\/a>\u00a0by making camps obsolete, while enhancing local development in remote areas.<\/p>\n

What happens next?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The next challenge is implementation. The first years of the Shirika Plan are vital to show it can actually work.<\/p>\n

In the first phase, planned initiatives centre on expanding livelihood opportunities, strengthening local services and improving coordination between humanitarian and development actors. Financing will be critical for success.<\/p>\n

Kenya has secured substantial\u00a0international support<\/a>\u00a0for\u00a0refugee-hosting and economic integration<\/a>. This includes a Sh155 billion (US$2 billion)\u00a0loan from the World Bank<\/a>\u00a0in 2024 that requires Kenya to integrate 400,000 refugees into the economy by 2027.<\/p>\n

For Kenya, the plan is a complete change of policy direction, away from a focus on security concerns and threats to close refugee camps. Closure threats happened\u00a0most recently in 2021<\/a>\u00a0but were quashed by the\u00a0high court in 2024<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The emphasis is now on inclusion, local development and burden-sharing.<\/p>\n

Success will depend not only on funding, but on the government\u2019s ability to deliver tangible benefits for both refugees and host communities.<\/p>\n

What are the risks?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

First, the Shirika Plan relies on a system of\u00a0differentiated assistance<\/a>. This means support is tailored to refugees\u2019 levels of need rather than provided equally to everyone. However, misconceptions of preferential treatment risk fuelling tensions between different refugee groups.<\/p>\n

Second, moving vulnerable refugees out of camps could create new challenges. Many have spent years with limited access to education, jobs and public services. Competing in open labour markets could be particularly challenging for refugees who have long lived under UNHCR-operated enclosures.<\/p>\n

Third, although more than 75 public engagement forums have been held across Kenya, some refugee and host-community representatives\u00a0report feeling excluded<\/a>\u00a0from the design of the plan and broader decision-making processes. Concerns have also been raised about public awareness, accountability and oversight mechanisms. This is a worry as public support is vital to the plan.<\/p>\n

Fourth,\u00a0funding shortfalls<\/a>\u00a0are a risk to the plan. Supporting programmes aimed at building capacity during the transition period require consistent financial investments.<\/p>\n

Where does this leave the plan?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The alternative \u2013 continuing to confine nearly a million people to underfunded camps \u2013 carries far greater risks than the challenges outlined above.<\/p>\n

As the wheels of the Shirika Plan start turning, there is a need to invest in the municipalities hosting refugees.<\/p>\n

A gradual reduction in UNHCR\u2019s direct role should also create greater space for\u00a0refugee-led organisations<\/a>, whose local knowledge and community ties are useful to identify needs and support integration efforts.<\/p>\n

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