{"id":19150,"date":"2025-12-31T12:44:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T12:44:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=19150"},"modified":"2026-01-01T19:16:56","modified_gmt":"2026-01-01T19:16:56","slug":"us-airstrikes-in-northern-nigeria-potential-windfalls-and-dangers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/19150\/us-airstrikes-in-northern-nigeria-potential-windfalls-and-dangers\/","title":{"rendered":"US airstrikes in northern Nigeria: potential windfalls and dangers"},"content":{"rendered":"

By <\/span>Olayinka Ajala*<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A month before the US carried out\u00a0its Christmas day attack<\/a>\u00a0on militants linked to the Islamic State group (IS) in north-western Nigeria, president Donald Trump had\u00a0declared<\/a>\u00a0Nigeria a \u201ccountry of particular concern\u201d. This was due to the alleged killing of Christians by terrorist groups in the country. Trump threatened military intervention if the attacks against Christians continued.<\/p>\n

The threat became a reality on Christmas day when the US military\u2019s Africa Command \u2013 in coordination with the Nigerian authorities \u2013 carried out strikes on terrorist locations in Sokoto state, North-West Nigeria.<\/p>\n

There were mixed\u00a0reactions<\/a>\u00a0to the attacks. Some citizens\u00a0hailed<\/a>\u00a0the attacks, saying they hoped they would send a message to the terrorists to desist from their activities. Others condemned the strikes, citing concerns about sovereignty.<\/p>\n

I have been\u00a0researching<\/a>\u00a0conflicts, terrorism and the formation of insurgent groups in Nigeria and the Sahel for over a decade. After the US intervention, a key question that arises is: does the attack strengthen Nigeria\u2019s counter-terrorism mechanisms. Or will it weaken them, and threaten national security and sovereignty?<\/p>\n

I argue that the US military intervention will indeed strengthen the hand of the Nigerian government in fighting insurgency in the short term in four ways, including enhanced intelligence gathering. Nevertheless, there\u2019s also a risk that it will trigger unintended consequences if Nigeria doesn\u2019t fully take charge of its counter-terrorism initiatives. These include loss of sovereignty and internal political division.<\/p>\n

Immediate gains<\/h2>\n

First, the recent cooperation between the US and Nigerian military would help Nigeria with enhanced surveillance and intelligence gathering. Prior to the Christmas day bombing, the US has been\u00a0conducting reconnaissance<\/a>\u00a0flights in Nigeria. The data gathered from these flights helped identify terrorist gatherings and movements.<\/p>\n

The US and its allies have struggled to gather intelligence in the region since\u00a0closing down<\/a>\u00a0a US drone base in Niger following a coup in the country. The loss and subsequent withdrawal from the US drone base in Agadez has significantly\u00a0degraded<\/a>\u00a0US and Western intelligence-gathering capabilities. This is why the US flew reconnaissance flights from Ghana for this attack.<\/p>\n

Second, the reported military collaboration will give the Nigerian government access to state of the art military hardware and resources. The US and Nigeria\u2019s relationship has been fractured since 2015 following the release of an Amnesty International report<\/a>\u00a0in which the Nigerian military was accused of gross human rights abuses.<\/p>\n

The US government immediately\u00a0suspended sales<\/a>\u00a0of key military hardware to Abuja. It also banned Nigeria from using some US equipment already purchased.<\/p>\n

Six years later Nigeria\u00a0signed a military agreement<\/a>\u00a0with Russia.<\/p>\n

The Christmas Day strike ordered by Trump suggests that the US might once again be willing to help Nigeria in its counter-terrorism initiatives.<\/p>\n

Third, the intervention could help Nigeria fight terrorism along its borders. The Christmas day attack is based on intelligence that\u00a0terrorist cells<\/a>\u00a0from Niger and Burkina Faso had entered Nigeria to carry out coordinated attacks. I have\u00a0previously written<\/a>\u00a0about how terrorism is spreading in West Africa and how international cooperation is needed to fight the surge. Such coordinated attacks could help Nigeria\u2019s cross-border counter-terrorism initiatives.<\/p>\n

Finally, the coordinated attacks send a message to terrorist groups that there is a renewed effort to turn the heat on them.<\/p>\n

Unintended consequences<\/h2>\n

There is nevertheless a risk of the US action having unintended consequences if Nigeria does not fully take charge of its counter-terrorism initiatives.<\/p>\n

Since 2009 when Boko Haram surfaced in Nigeria, the country has been battling terrorism within and around its borders. Despite counter-terrorism initiatives such as military response, intelligence coordination, community resilience, international partnerships, and rehabilitation efforts to dismantle extremist networks and address root causes, Nigeria has not been able to stop terrorism in the country.<\/p>\n

While renewed collaborations with the US is a step in the right direction, the possible dangers for Nigeria include:<\/p>\n