{"id":14477,"date":"2024-12-11T12:47:22","date_gmt":"2024-12-11T12:47:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/?p=14477"},"modified":"2024-12-11T12:48:19","modified_gmt":"2024-12-11T12:48:19","slug":"trumps-re-election-how-africa-can-navigate-the-changing-american-foreign-policy-landscape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qiraatafrican.com\/en\/14477\/trumps-re-election-how-africa-can-navigate-the-changing-american-foreign-policy-landscape\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s Re-Election: How Africa Can Navigate the Changing American Foreign Policy Landscape"},"content":{"rendered":"

In many African countries, the United States is no longer the investor of choice. This has left a gap for India, Turkey, Russia, and China to ramp up their\u00a0diplomacy<\/a><\/u>, trade, and investment here. A huge amount of the continent\u2019s infrastructure is driven by Chinese companies. Most of it is backed by funding from Beijing. China is building roads, ports, and airports all over Africa, further strengthening its presence on the continent. All this is in exchange for resources, friendship, and political and economic influence. In the new age of global politics, the best way to accomplish these goals is to promote an international order based on democracy, human rights, and free enterprise\u2014to extend the zone of peace and prosperity that the\u00a0United States\u00a0<\/a>helped establish in Europe to every other region of the world. Put differently, the United States needs to integrate the world\u2019s have-nots into the globalized West. Pursuing that goal is not charity. Creating an international order in which more people are free and prosperous is profoundly in America\u2019s self-interest. In a world of market democracies, America and Americans are likely to be both more prosperous and more secure. In such a world we are most likely to realize the promise of globalization while minimizing its dangers.<\/p>\n

Much like his candidacy,\u00a0Donald Trump\u2019s presidency<\/a><\/u>\u00a0has been described as populist par excellence and as fundamentally breaking with the liberal internationalist tradition of American foreign policy. Assassination attempts, criminal convictions, and a change in political opponent couldn\u2019t stop Republican Donald Trump from winning the\u00a02024 US election<\/a><\/u>. “Despite polls predicting a nail-biter, the final results were fairly decisive, and although we do not know the precise composition of the\u00a0new order<\/a><\/u>, we know Trump will be at the top of it,an analyst<\/em>\u00a0says. From the campaign trail, Trump raised concerns that the U.S. is paying too much to support\u00a0Ukraine<\/a><\/u>. He\u2019s promised again to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords. And he has floated the idea of a 10% tax on imports from all countries and a much higher tax on China, echoing at rallies that \u201cChina is eating our lunch,<\/em>\u201d to groans and applause. In addition, Trump has vowed to surpass\u00a0deportation\u00a0<\/a><\/u>numbers from his first term. With plans to use the National Guard to round up undocumented immigrants, Trump has also invoked the Alien Enemies Act, an 18th-century law that allows the president to deport noncitizens from nations deemed hostile to the United States.<\/p>\n

Perhaps interesting to note, Trump’s previous administration adopted an \u201cAmerica First<\/em>\u201d policy that deprioritized\u00a0Africa<\/u>, withdrawing from major trade agreements and cutting funding for aid programs. A second Trump presidency is likely to continue this trend, focusing on domestic economic growth while tightening trade policies that favor U.S. interests. Now there are reports that Trump may reintroduce a “global gag rule<\/em>” that prohibits US funding to NGOs in countries like\u00a0Uganda\u00a0<\/a><\/u>if they are providing abortion-related services. This rule applied to all US global health funding. In Morocco, Trump’s return has stirred optimism about Washington\u2019s stance on\u00a0Western Sahara<\/a><\/u>. During his first term, Trump recognized Morocco\u2019s sovereignty over the disputed region\u2014a move that has not been reversed by Biden. While this shift has yet to yield concrete results, Morocco hopes Trump’s second term could bring further support. Security remains a key interest for the US in the Horn of Africa, where ongoing conflicts, such as the civil war in Sudan, have disrupted stability. Analysts predict the Trump administration may reduce funding to Somalia, potentially redirecting resources to Somaliland as part of its strategic interests in the region. While the G20 has recognized the African Union as a permanent member, concerns persist about the organization\u2019s effectiveness in representing the continent\u2019s interests on the global stage.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s style of\u00a0diplomacy\u00a0<\/a><\/u>both eschewed the conventions of the US\u2019 preferential treatment of allied nations and its intolerance of dictators. He led a charge to get NATO country members to pay more toward collective defense. He pushed the allies to bring Russia back into the fold of the G7. He also attempted to warm relations with North Korea and embraced controversial, often nationalist leaders\u2014such as Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Hungary\u2019s Viktor Orban, and Poland\u2019s Andrzej Duda. In 2022, he has called Russian President\u00a0Vladimir Putin<\/a>\u00a0<\/u>a \u201cgenius<\/em>\u201d for invading Ukraine and described Chinese President Xi Jinping as \u201cbrilliant\u201d for controlling his people with an \u201ciron fist.\u201d\u00a0<\/em>Xolela Mangcu, a sociology professor at George Washington University, said Trump’s election victory offers African countries, particularly\u00a0South Africa<\/a><\/u>, a chance and an incentive to adjust diplomatic and economic strategies to navigate the changing American foreign policy landscape. The Guardian’s Washington bureau chief, David Smith, said more effort would be devoted to oil exploration and production, which would have disastrous implications for the global environment.<\/p>\n

Trump’s Presidency and Africa: Transformation or Status Quo?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Back in 2016, \u201cAmerica First\u201d\u00a0<\/em>seemed to promise a clear defense of\u00a0U.S. primacy<\/a>\u00a0in a changing world order. That appealed to many voters.\u00a0<\/em>Previously, in an\u00a0interview\u00a0<\/a>with the\u00a0New York Times,\u00a0<\/em>Trump explained that what he meant by the idea was that his administration would prevent other nations from taking advantage of the United States. But whatever he meant, those words come with nearly a century\u2019s worth of political baggage. However, South African political analyst Daniel Silke believes that Washington’s focus on\u00a0geostrategy\u00a0<\/a><\/u>and efforts to invest in parts of the continent and strengthen diplomatic ties in Africa would continue\u2014regardless of who wins the White House. Silke said that despite Trump’s “America first<\/em>” rhetoric, the world demands action from the US. The growing influence of China, Russia, and other countries would force Trump and his administration to be less isolationist than many would think, Silke added.<\/p>\n

At another point, if Trump sees\u00a0West Africa<\/a>\u00a0<\/u>through the prism of relations with Moscow and his planned deal with President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine, it will introduce a wild card into the region\u2019s politics. Meanwhile, with the erosion of global rules and Trump’s return to the White House, signals shifts in US-Africa ties with focus areas such as trade partnerships, security cooperation, and the China-Russian competition on the continent. Trump argues that the\u00a0global trading system<\/a><\/u>\u00a0is rigged against U.S. interests and responsible for large trade deficits, declining U.S. manufacturing, and the offshoring of American jobs. The Republican platform promises to return the United States to the \u201cmanufacturing superpower of the world<\/em>\u201d through \u201crebalancing trade<\/em>\u201d towards domestic production.<\/p>\n

Of Trump’s stated foreign policy positions, his planned\u00a0protectionist trade policy\u00a0<\/a><\/u>would likely be the most immediately damaging to Americans; his proposed tariff increases would spark a global trade war and drive up prices for American consumers. In the longer term, his ideas about the US role in international affairs could erode US diplomacy and undermine institutions like NATO and the UN. That could have lasting effects on the geopolitical landscape, much as his first-term foreign policy decisions did. Priyal Singh, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, a human security think tank headquartered in South Africa, noted that US relations with the continent arguably reached new lows during the\u00a0first Trump administration<\/a>\u00a0<\/u>due to three key issues on a German-based International Politics and Society:<\/p>\n